The accuracy of forecasting a future event is based upon the validity of present facts and information, and generated within a program of patterns relying upon past models. But as present circumstances can change at any given moment, and unforeseen variables can alter the patterns modeled on previous occurrences, the science of forecasting can be a precarious venture into the foolish unknown.
For Federal and Postal employees preparing to file for Federal Disability Retirement benefits through the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, whether the Federal or Postal employee is under FERS or CSRS (although, as the latter category is becoming more of a rarity, one may forecast that in a decade or so, the designation of “CSRS” may well become expunged from the lexicon of recognizable acronyms; just another forecast).
Attempting to achieve some semblance of knowledge such that one can peacefully predict future outcomes is a natural desire; basing all hopes upon the certainty of a future forecast may be an act of monumental folly; the alternative is to have a balanced approach, and to recognize that the probability of a predicted outcome may approach a reasonable degree of certitude, but with potential pitfalls based upon unknown variables still to be encountered. Or, as most of us would do it, wet one’s forefinger, put it up into the air, and declare a bold prediction with little or no knowledge or factual basis upon which to rely.
Robert R. McGill, Esquire